What matters to China is consumer and investor confidence, «so it’s not hard to see why Chinese officials reject the argument that population decline means economic decline,» said Dimitar Gueorguiev, associate professor who teaches Chinese politics at Syracuse University. .
For China, being the most populous nation «doesn’t count for anything» in and of itself, he told NBC News in an email. The important thing is «to be seen as a developing, modern and functional country.»
On the streets of Beijing, the mood was similar.
«Population is not equal to national power,» said Zhang Han, 29, a business student from the eastern province of Shandong. «The United States and Japan have smaller populations, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t strong powers.»
Retired teacher Liu Quan, 57, said he doesn’t care about population news at all. «We just want peace» between the feuding neighbors, he said. «I think both India and China don’t want conflict.»
Despite the conflicting demographic statistics, China is much richer than India. After seeking economic liberalization in the 1970s, its economy has skyrocketed to become the world’s second-largest behind the US, with a gross domestic product nearly seven times that of India, which ranks fifth place.
Both countries face their own challenges.
Once growing exponentially, China’s aging population fell last year for the first time in six decades. This raises serious questions about the ability of this titan, on whom the world economy has come to depend, to maintain, let alone improve, its economic status.
China once tried to control its population growth with the now-defunct one-child policy. It is now desperately trying to stem a declining birth rate that means that, as in many Western countries, a dwindling young population will have a hard time supporting a growing number of retirees. That’s what partly stalled the economy of neighboring Japan, even though it’s already a high-income country.
India, by contrast, has not achieved the same lightning-fast development in manufacturing and infrastructure. Its population is younger but most of them are unemployed. or in extreme poverty. Only 2.2% of workers between the ages of 15 and 59 have received regulated professional training, according to government figures. In China, 26% of the workforce are classified as «qualified».
Despite a booming tech sector, the sheer size of India’s population means it has been struggling to create enough jobs to keep up with demand.
The Times of India newspaper described this as «a social bomb about to explode» in an editorial in reaction to the news of the population. «Only by providing far better education and opportunities for our youth can we make the hope of an ‘Indian Century’ a reality,» she said.
A UN poll conducted in conjunction with this week’s report found that many Indians listed economic problems as their top concern when thinking about demographic change, followed by concerns about the environment, health and human rights.
Those findings suggest that «population anxiety has trickled down to a large part of the general public,» though the numbers should be seen as a sign of development, rather than a cause for anxiety, Andrea Wojnar, representative of the Population Fund of the United Nations for India, he said in a statement.
If China is worried about giving up the top spot, India doesn’t seem all that excited about claiming it.
Jace Zhang reported from Beijing and Alex Smith reported from London.
Eric Baculinao, Associated Press and Reuters contributed.