CHICAGO — Mayor Lori Lightfoot is the first to admit that her re-election bid will be far from easy.
“There are nine people on the ballot,” Lightfoot said in an interview with NBC News. «It is impossible not to have a second round.»
What seems increasingly possible, however, is that Lightfoot won’t make it that far.
In Chicago municipal elections, if a candidate does not obtain a majority, then the top two vote winners face each other in a second round of voting in April.
But with less than two weeks to go before the Feb. 28 election, the first ever firecracker Democratic mayor, who promptly brandished a national flag hate-hate relationship with the Tories, he faces credible threats from at least three opponents in the nine-person race. His the unfavorable have skyrocketed with Chicagoans fed up with gun violence. In recent surveys, she has failed to break into the top two.
All of that adds up to the startling prospect that a sitting mayor of a big city could be eliminated from the re-election race in the first round of voting.
“It looks more and more difficult for her,” one of her competitors, Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García, said in an interview. «It’s a hell of a front to fight on, from her point of view.»
a recent survey has Lightfoot in a statistical tie with two others: Paul Vallas, a former CEO of Chicago Public Schools who earned the endorsement of the Fraternal Order of Chicago Police, and Garcia, who has a high identifying name and who, in 2015, he forced his- Mayor Rahm Emanuel into a runoff. Garcia lost but went on to be elected to Congress.
“I love that people think of me as the underdog,” Lightfoot said. “I’ve been an underdog all my life. And I’ve always proven people wrong, so I’m fine in that lane.»
now light foot is taking the battle to another candidate showing signs of rising: Brandon Johnson, a county commissioner backed by the politically powerful Chicago Teachers Union, which has long been at odds with Lightfoot.
At a candidate forum last week, Lightfoot focused his attacks on Johnson, who has not led in the polls the way Garcia and Vallas have. It seemed to be an acknowledgment that he was fighting an emerging candidate who could ultimately displace her from advancing to the next round.
“I take it as a sign of desperation,” Johnson said of Lightfoot’s attacks. Johnson’s support from the Chicago Teachers Union brings a strong, on-the-ground organization that can go door-to-door on his behalf. “She certainly recognizes that our movement is picking up steam and that more and more people are responding to our message.”
Lightfoot, the city’s first black woman and the first openly gay person to serve as mayor, has had a tenure marked by tumult. she is clashed with the Chicago Teachers Unionwho went on strike under his mandate and participated in testy exchanges with Governor JB Pritzker and his fellow councilors.
In 2021, a media outlet sued the mayor after he announced that he would give interviews to mark his midway point in office with only journalists of color. (At the time, the mayor said she was trying to call attention to a Chicago press corps that was overwhelmingly white and male.)
Most recently, his campaign faced an investigation after he tried to recruit public school students to volunteer for his re-election effort in exchange for school credits.
She has been credited, including recently in a Chicago Tribune editorial, for dealing with the Covid pandemic.»much better than most mayorsThe editorial also applauded her for improving Chicago’s financial situation. «Lightfoot has put equity front and center on her agenda,» the editorial said, «and has worked tirelessly to improve the economic prospects of struggling neighborhoods.»
Lightfoot notes that she has been discarded before. In his first run for mayor, he had so little support that he sometimes failed to qualify for the debate stage. Garcia and Vallas have had their own setbacks of late. Garcia faced questions about donations of FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried, and Vallas’ support of the Fraternal Order of Chicago Police has dogged him, particularly amid news that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was scheduled to speak to the union on Monday.
Gun violence dominates the race
This time, given everything Lightfoot faces, it’s the inescapable problem of crime that permeates the Chicago mayor’s race and jeopardizes her re-election chances.
Nationally, Second City is instantly evoked after mass shootings, embedded in ideological clashes over gun laws unfolding on the cable news. City officials for years have rejected the notion that gun laws do little to stop crime. They say that despite local restrictions, guns cross the border of the states like indianaeven from as far away as mississippiillegally falling into the hands of young people inside and outside the gangs. Despite federal and local law enforcement working to increase penalties and file more aggressive cases, Chicago remains one of the most dangerous large cities in America, even though the violence lessened a bit in 2022 compared to the previous year.
Locally, the pain and anger over repeated crimes are palpable. At one of the mayor’s own recent events, conversations that had erupted in the past hour recounted story after story of crime in the neighborhood: an armed robbery, a break-in, a robbery, and included reports of shootings closer to their homes. : the «safe». neighborhoods» — on the north side of Chicago
“I know many of you are feeling a touch of violence, perhaps for the first time in your lives in Chicago,” Lightfoot told the crowd, hoping to allay questions he was likely to be asked about neighborhood safety.
Lightfoot focused his talk on the flow of guns into the city, including his fight to take out-of-state gun stores to court.
“We warned them, we gave them the data and they kept doing it. So this old litigator? he said, alluding to his past as a federal prosecutor. “We put it on and sued these f—ers, pardon my language.”
That line woke up the group of about 50 people on a Saturday afternoon in late January. But Lightfoot’s trademark tough speech did little to allay his fears.
“I feel worse,” said a North Side Chicago resident who heard the mayor’s comments but did not want his name used. «I still don’t think I get it.»
Greg O’Neil from Chicago, who helped organize the event at Moe’s Cantina in the Wrigleyville neighborhood on the city’s North Side. and had not yet decided on a mayoral election, he said the main concern he has heard is a recent spike in crime in the neighborhood and a general feeling of unease among friends and neighbors. Some of those with him shared those concerns.
“When you’re paying $20,000 in property taxes and there’s an armed robbery at 1:00 in the afternoon in your neighborhood, people feel like $20,000 isn’t worth their money,” said one.
“It is moving towards the prosperous areas, we have become a target,” said another.
“People who are street, from my point of view, are absolutely petrified. And they are moving,” said another.
a recent survey showed that 63% of Chicagoans did not feel safe.
And one of them was Eddie Pulliam, who traveled from the south side of town to hear Lightfoot that afternoon and spoke about the deterioration of his neighborhood over time.
“I just wish he would put more emphasis on looking at what’s happening in well-established neighborhoods on Chicago’s South Side,” Pulliam said. “I am very upset with the crime in the city of Chicago. What frustrates me is that now crime started happening on the north side, and now it’s a big problem.»
In an interview, Lightfoot said Chicago’s persistent crime is different from other cities. Generational poverty in parts of Chicago is compounded by fractious gangs, he explained, and all of that is exacerbated by the constant flow of illegal guns.
“The biggest problem and existential threat to us in the city is the proliferation of illegal weapons,” he said. He then hits Vallas, his opponent, saying that he is oversimplifying the problem to believe that hiring more policemen will solve the problem.
Billboards, also a former budget director for the city of Chicago, built his campaigns around the issue of crime, like many of Lightfoot’s opponents.
‘Pressure-filled job’
Although Garcia has clung to a voting track, Hurdling has also gained momentum in recent weeks, including winning the Chicago Tribune endorsementwhich said Lightfoot was «reluctant to see this moment as the time for any sort of leadership reset.»
Following an event for seniors near Chicago’s South Side this week, Vallas said his plan to crack down on crime includes investing in the city’s South and West Sides, where some of the worst crime traditionally occurs, and adding occupational training. . But he believes the shortage of officers at some of the most dangerous precincts is the most pressing concern.
“There is absolutely no substitute for providing the police department with the resources and support that they need so that they can protect communities and what you see is a significant degradation of the police department,” he said in an interview.
In a quieter moment, Vallas recalled endorsing Lightfoot in his first run for mayor and seeing his transformation.
“It’s an extraordinarily high-pressure job,” Vallas said. “It will take its toll on anyone. I can tell, I can hear the stress in his voice. So I keep telling people, let’s be positive. Let’s talk about issues and try not to talk about anyone else.»